The 27th SDP ANNUAL DAAG Conference
Making Smarter Decisions in an Uncertain World
 
LIVE ONLINE WEBCAST: April 14-16th, 2021
 

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APRIL 14, 2021 - DAY 1
 
 

 

8:00 AM (PT):

WELCOME - CONFERENCE OPEN

Leslie Lippard, 2021 SDP President

 

 

8:05 AM (PT):

Meet Our 2021 DAAG Conference Co-Chairs

  • Elayne Ko, GSK
  • Charles Persinger, Lilly
 

 

8:15 AM - 9:00 AM (PT):

Keynote: Dr. Edward Rogers, Chief Knowledge Officer at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt Maryland from 2003 until retiring in May, 2020.

"LESSONS IN DECISION MAKING FROM THE COLUMBIA SPACE SHUTTLE ACCIDENT"

 
 
 
 

9:00 AM - 9:30 AM (PT):

DAS/SDP PRACTICE AWARD | "A Decision Analytic Approach to Collaboratively Respond to Invasive Grass Carp in Lake Erie"

Dr. Kelly F. Robinson, Assistant Professor; Quantitative Fisheries Center, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife

MODERATOR: Elayne Ko, GSK | DAAG Conference 2021 Co-Chair

 

 
9:30 AM - 10:15 AM (PT): OFFICIAL BREAK FROM PRESENTATIONS - Join us for Meet The Speaker and/or Meet The Sponsor
 
 

9:30 AM - 9:45 AM (PT):

MEET THE SPEAKER | Kelly Robinson (DAS/SDP Practice Award Winner)

Join Dr. Kelly Robinson for an informal Conversation - No RSVP Required Kelly Robinson Breakout room

 

 
 

9:30 AM - 9:45 AM (PT):

By Invite Only | Lottery winners

Meet Ed Rogers | DAAG Keynote Speaker

 

 
 

9:30 AM - 10:00 AM (PT):

MEET OUR SDP SPONSOR - No RSVP Required, Stay a minute, Stay awhile!

SmartOrg

www.smartorg.com

Future of Decision Makers at SDP | Join the discussion on what concerns Decision Makers in your organization. Are we getting the right level of engagement with decisionmakers?  What are the unaddressed decision-intensive situations concerning your executives?  Should we bring problem-focused explorations into the society? OR if you just like to meet David Matheson or Ralph Morales OR talk about connecting Innovation & Finance, Portfolio Management, or Innovation Management, we’d be happy to talk about what we do as well.

SPONSOR BREAKOUT: SmartOrg

 
 
 

 

10:15 AM - 11:45 AM (PT)

 

SESSION #1: The Art of Decision Framing

SESSION CO-CHAIRS: Lindsay Olyola, Shell & Terry Karner, Astellas Pharma US

SPEAKERS:

  • Olusey Ekanem, Shell | “Fostering Decision Quality (DQ) through Decision Framing in Major Projects in Shell"
  • Dr. John R. Black, Aragon National Inc. | "Evolving Decision-making in Law Enforcement; Looking at All Sides of the Coin"
  • Jeff Keisler, Univ. of Massachusetts Boston | “Framing and scoping"

 
11:45 AM -12:30 PM (PT):  OFFICIAL BREAK FROM PRESENTATIONS - Join us for Meet The Speaker and/or Sponsor
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11:45 AM - 12:15PM (PT):

MEET THE SPEAKERS | SESSION 1

(No RSVP Required)

STAY A MINUTE - STAY A WHILE


 

 

11:45 AM - 12:15 PM (PT):

MEET OUR SDP SPONSOR - No RSVP Required, Stay a minute, Stay Awhile!

The University of Texas at Austinhttps://www.mccombs.utexas.edu/execed/earn-a-certificate/strategic-decision-and-risk-management-certificate

Benefits from completing the Strategic Decision & Risk Management Certificate (SDRM) | HOST: Eric Bickel

The University of Texas at Austin | SDRM
 
 
 
 

12:30PM - 2:00 PM (PT)

SESSSION #2: Case Studies

SESSION CO-CHAIRS: Jay Anderson & Laura Keating

SPEAKERS:

  • Eva Regnier, Naval Postgraduate School |  "COVID Testing: Make the Most of Testing"
  • Eric Johnson, GSK | “Early-Phase Pharma Decision Making"
  • Max Moullin, Public Sector Scorecard Research | “Improving and evaluating outcomes with the Public Sector Scorecard"

 

 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2:00 PM - 2:15PM (PT):

MEET THE SPEAKERS | SESSION 2

(No RSVP Required)

STAY A MINUTE - STAY A WHILE

 

 

2:15 PM - 3:00 PM (PT):

*Networking Opportunity – NO RSVP REQUIRED, online registration required; instructions to register were sent to your email. For assistance: email | [email protected]

Hosted by MobLab | A playground for Decisions, www.moblab.com

Join us for interactive games and experiment-based learning to economics, management and the social sciences.

Before the session (only takes a second):
Register for a MobLab student account and join the DAAG Class (incase you didn't get the email we sent): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DL798XS5soDYWK3fKLkbgzvfa-b60Ghl/view

MobLab | A playground for Decisions

 

 
 
APRIL 15, 2021 - DAY 2
 
 

 

 

 

7:30 AM - 8:00 AM (PT):

BE AN EARLY BIRD

Join your colleagues for a MEET & GREET over breakfast!

We are opening breakout rooms by geographic location:

 
 
 
 

7:30 AM - 7:45 AM (PT):

By Invite Only | Lottery winners

Meet Annie Duke | DAAG Keynote Speaker

 
 
 
 

8:00 AM (PT):  KICK OFF DAY 2

Our 2021 DAAG Conference Co-Chairs

  • Elayne Ko, GSK
  • Charles Persinger, Lilly
 
 
 

8:00 AM - 9:00 AM (PT):

KEYNOTE SPEAKER

Annie Duke, Poker Champion, Author and Decision Scientist, and co-founder of the Alliance for Decision Education will share her wisdom and advise in a fireside chat format. She will explain the practical framework from her recent book: How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices. Then in conversation with Carl Spetzler, she will address some of the key challenges that we all are facing in spreading and adoption of DQ to the world.

MODERATOR | Carl Spetzler, SDG

 
 
 
   

9:00 AM - 9:30 AM (PT) - PARALLEL SESSION | TRACK 1

Click to move to Track 1

PANEL DISCUSSION:   Meet four leaders from different professional spheres working to raise public awareness and engagement in decision-making skills, with the aim of positively shaping tomorrow.

PANELISTSAnnie Duke, Author, Speaker and Decision Strategist and DAAG Keynote Speaker; Eyas Raddad, Ph.D., Research Fellow, Research Decision Analytics, Eli Lilly and Company;  Lee Failing, Partner, Engineer and Decision Analyst at Compass Resource Management; Joe Sweeney, Ed.D., Director, Alliance for Decision Education

 
   

9:00 AM - 9:30 AM (PT) - PARALLEL SESSION | TRACK 2

Click to move to Track 2

PRESENTATION:    "Addressing Value Drain in the Deal-Making Function" MODERATOR |  Jeremy Walker, Decision Frameworks

SPEAKER |   Paul Papayoanou, PH.D., Founder and Managing Director of Dragonfly

 
9:30 AM - 10:15 AM (PT): OFFICIAL BREAK FROM PRESENTATIONS - Join us for Meet The Speaker and/or Meet The Sponsor  
 
   

9:30 AM - 10:00 AM (PT):

MEET THE SPEAKER | Paul Papayoanou, Dragonfly

Paul Papayoanou | Dragonfly

 
   

9:30 AM - 10:00AM (PT):

MEET OUR SPONSOR - No RSVP Required, Stay a minute, Stay awhile!

Decision Education Foundation

www.decisioneducation.org

What We Do | DEF is sponsoring a collaboration session to provide Decision Professionals an opportunity to explore ways they as individuals, and SDP as an organization, can contribute to building a Decision Education movement. Annie Duke’s keynote and the panel discussion around raising awareness of decision-making skills will help frame a facilitated session for capturing group input.

  Sponsor Breakout: Decision Education Foundation

 
 
 
 

10:15 AM - 11:45 AM (PT):

Session #3: Innovative Methods for Addressing Uncertainty

SESSSION CO-CHAIRS: Gary Summers, John Busbice, Osayi Akinbosoye

SPEAKERS:

  • Michael Liebman, IPQ Analytics | “COVID-19: Medicine Sails in a Sea of Uncertainty"
  • Robert Lempert, RAND Corp | “Good Decisions Without Good Predictions: Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty"
  • Bart Willigers, AstraZeneca | "Expert elicitation and advanced Bayesian modelling: Extrapolation of clinical trial data to establish long term mortality"
11:45 AM - 12:30 PM (PT): OFFICIAL BREAK FROM PRESENTATIONS - Join us for Meet The Speaker and/or Meet The Sponsor  
 

 

11:45 AM - 12:15 PM (PT):

MEET THE SPEAKERS | SESSION 3

(No RSVP Required)

STAY A MINUTE - STAY A WHILE

 
 
 
 

11:45 AM - 12:15 PM (PT):

MEET OUR SDP SPONSOR - No RSVP Required, Stay a minute, Stay awhile!

Decision Frameworks

www.decisionframeworks.com

What We Do | What’s in That Secret Sauce? “Many people drool over the rewards which will come from a successful DQ implementation, better informed decisions, greater levels of internal alignment and , most importantly, improved performance – all mouthwatering, to say the least.  Successful implementations, regardless of their maturity, take constant care and attention - plus a sprinkle of this and dash of that.  Are there some key ingredients which work with everyone’s palettes?  Come join us and hear about what we think are the key ingredients, share your thoughts and experiences, and perhaps, gain some ideas on how to focus and fine tune your own recipe for DQ implementation truffle sauce success.”

SPONSOR BREAKOUT: Decision Frameworks

 
 
 
 
 

12:30PM - 2:00 PM (PT):

Session #4: “Chairs’ Choice: Diverse Explorations of Decision Sciences Around the World”

Session Co-Chairs: Elayne Ko & Charles Persinger

SPEAKERS:

  • Larry Phillips, Emeritus Professor of Decision Science, at the London School of Economics, and a Director of Facilitations Limited | “Decision modelling with limited or no data"
  • Geoff Olser, Operations Manager and instructor for the Association of Canadian Mountain Guides (ACMG) Training and Assessment Program, Freelance Mountain Guide; Todd Guyn, Mountain Guide; Stephen Holeczi, Mountain Guide and Mountain Rescue Specialist for Parks Canada | “Hope is not a strategy - Introducing Decision Quality principles to mountain guiding in Canada"
  • JeNae Johnson, CTM Unlimited | "Systemic Bias and Decision Quality"
 
 
 

2:00 PM - 2:30PM (PT):

MEET THE SPEAKERS | SESSION 4

(No RSVP Required)

STAY A MINUTE - STAY A WHILE

  • Larry Phillips, Emeritus Professor of Decision Science, at the London School of Economics, and a Director of Facilitations Limited | “Decision modelling with limited or no data" Larry Phillips | Emeritus Professor of Decision Science
  • Geoff Olser, Operations Manager and instructor for the Association of Canadian Mountain Guides (ACMG) Training and Assessment Program, Freelance Mountain Guide; Todd Guyn, Mountain Guide; Stephen Holeczi, Mountain Guide and Mountain Rescue Specialist for Parks Canada | “Hope is not a strategy - Introducing Decision Quality principles to mountain guiding in Canada" Geoff Olser, Todd Guyn, Stephen Holeczi | ACMG
  • JeNae Johnson, CTM Unlimited | "Systemic Bias and Decision Quality" JeNae | CTM Unlimited
 
 
 

2:15 PM - 3:00 PM  (PT):

Happy Hour

Breakout 1 | Reducing Uncertainty about SDP Certification -  Certification Overview and Q&A, HOST: Laura Keating

Society of Decision Professional Certification

Breakout 2 | DA in the Public Sector VS Private: “How Decision Professionals can best enable and leverage diversity, equality and inclusion”, HOST:  Lyle Walker

Networking session: Fostering decision quality at public sector agencies

Breakout 3 | No Topic, No Host - Designated for OPEN CONVERSATIONS (enjoy)Happy Hour!

 
 
 
 
 
APRIL 16, 2021 - DAY 3
 
 
 
 

BE AN EARLY BIRD

Join your colleagues for a  little preconference networking over breakfast!

We are opening breakout rooms by topic (NO RSVP REQUIRED) 

     
8:00 AM | Conference Start
     
 

8:00 AM (PT):  KICK OFF DAY 3

Our 2021 DAAG Conference Co-Chairs

  • Elayne Ko, GSK
  • Charles Persinger, Lilly
     
 
     
 

8:00 AM - 9:30 AM (PT):

Session 5: Decision Leadership | Executive Panel

Session Co-Chairs:

· Ellen Coopersmith, President; Decision Frameworks

· Jennifer Harrington, Senior Decision Consultant; Intel’s Center for Decision Leadership

Executive Panel:

Sonia Scarselli, VP Global Exploration and Appraisal; BHP Petroleum

Sharon L. Heck, Corporate Vice President, Finance and Chief Tax Officer; Intel Corporation

Session Closing Remarks – Jim Driscoll, Director of Intel’s Center for Decision Leadership

This diverse, global panel of executives has been gathered to discuss decision leadership – What is it? Why do it? How do leaders and their organizations benefit? How do leaders transition their organization’s culture?

     
 
     
 

9:30 AM - 9:50 AM (PT):

SDP HERO AWARDS | Honoring volunteers for the Pioneer Award, Volunteer Award and Recruiter of the year Award

  • VOLUNTEER AWARD |Given to an individual or team exemplifying the spirit of giving back to society or human kind through application of DA/DQ principles,
  • RECRUITER OF THE YEAR AWARD | Given to the individual attracting the most new paying members in an award cycle.
  • PIONEER AWARD | Given to an individual or team for long term contributions to the profession or expanding the utility of DA/DQ to new areas.
     
9:50 AM - 10:15 AM (PT):  OFFICIAL BREAK FROM PRESENTATIONS - Join us for Meet the Sponsor
 
     
 
 

9:50 AM - 10:15 AM (PT):

MEET OUR SDP SPONSOR - No RSVP Required, Stay a minute, Stay awhile!

K Carpenter Associates

www.kca-us.com

JOIN US | The energy transition is a pathway toward transformation of the global energy sector from fossil-based to zero-carbon by the second half of this century.  Much of the gap can be closed with efficiency gains and renewable energy.  But what does that mean to all of us as individuals?

  • Will jobs be displaced?
  • Is this initiative a threat to our industry or an opportunity?
  • Which technologies are at the center of energy transition?
  • Aren't renewables expensive and unreliable?

Kevin Carpenter, CEO of K Carpenter Associates answers all those questions and more.

9:50 AM - 10:15 AM (PT):

 
 
 
 

10:15 AM - 11:45 AM (PT) - PARALLEL SESSION | TRACK 1

Click to move to Track 1

SESSION #6: Breaking through: overcoming barriers to decision culture

SESSION CO-CHAIRS: Andrew Thrift, Chad Novotny & Lyle Walker

SPEAKERS:

  • Laura Brandt, US Fish & Wildlife Service | “Stealth decision analysis, bringing decision analysis principles to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service one problem at a time"
  • Jennifer Harrington, Intel and Ashlee Burke, Intel | "The Power of Moments – Boosting Cultural Change by Creating Defining Moments“
 
 
 
 

10:15 AM - 11:45 AM (PT) - PARALLEL SESSION | TRACK 2

Click to move to Track 2

SESSION #7: Bridging data and decision sciences

SESSION CO-CHAIRS: Neil Hamlett & Chelsea Maksimovic

SPEAKERS:

  • Fabrizio Dell'Acqua, Columbia University | “Decision Biases and Artificial Intelligence"
  • Xiaoguia Guo, University College, London; Smith School of Business, University of Maryland | "Machine Learning Forecasting Project Delays as an Input to Decision-Making"
  • Neil Hamlett, International Consulting Associates | "Bridging Machine Learning to Decision Analysis Using Metalog Functions"
 
11:45 AM - 12:30 PM (PT):  OFFICIAL BREAK FROM PRESENTATIONS - Join us for Meet the Speaker and/or Sponsor
 

 

11:45 AM - 12:15 PM (PT):

MEET THE SPEAKERS | SESSION #6:  Breaking through: overcoming barriers to decision culture

(No RSVP Required)

STAY A MINUTE - STAY A WHILE

 
 
 
 

11:45 AM - 12:15 PM (PT):

MEET THE SPEAKERS | SESSION #7:  Bridging data and decision sciences

(No RSVP Required)

STAY A MINUTE - STAY A WHILE

 

 
 
 

11:45 AM - 12:15 PM (PT):

MEET OUR SPONSOR - No RSVP Required, Stay a minute, Stay awhile!

SDG | Strategic Decisions Group

www.sdg.com

Deciders to DQ Champions: Our Best Ideas for Winning over Decision Makers

We all know the key to adoption of organizational decision quality is winning the hearts and minds of decision makers—and turning them into champions. In this session, we’ve invited four panelists who have done just that to share ideas and discuss best practices with those who join us.

  • Carl Spetzler, SDG Chairman
  • Ellen Coopersmith, President, Decision Frameworks   
  • Bill Klimack, Principal Consultant, SDG
  • Bruce Judd, Partner, Managing Director

Moderator: Troy Helm, Senior Consultant, SDG

 
    11:45-12:15 pm PT
 
 
 

12:30PM - 2:00 PM (PT) - PARALLEL SESSION | TRACK 1

Click to move to Track 1

SESSION #8: Superforecasting

SESSION CO-CHAIRS: Steve Glickman & James Mitchell

SPEAKERS:

  • Steve Glickman, Boeing & Phillip Venice, Boeing | “Interview with a Superforecaster"
  • James Mitchell, 1524077 Alberta Inc | "Forecasting or Superforecasting?"
  • Jordan Stephens, Intel | “Lessons from Curvecasting (a.k.a. “A Decision Analyst, a Forecaster, and a Data Scientist Walk Into a Conference Room”)"
 
 

12:30PM - 2:00 PM (PT) - PARALLEL SESSION | TRACK 2

Click to move to Track 2

SESSION #9: Sustainability

SESSION CO-CHAIRS: Victoria Hemming & Elizabeth Ewing

SPEAKERS:

  • Elizabeth Ewing, Ewing Smith Consulting LLC | "What is Sustainability?": Setting the Context for Practitioners in Understanding sustainability-related decision making from a corporate perspective
  • Sabrina Watkins, Sustainability Advisor & Luis Mendoza, Decision Frameworks | “Use of Decision Quality to Evaluate a Path to Net Zero"
  • Andrew Kilmartin, Institute for Energy Systems, University of Edinburgh | “Unbundling the Energy Union: Decision Quality and Decision Dialogue Framework and EU Energy Policy"
     
 
     

 

 

2:00 PM - 2:30 PM (PT):

MEET THE SPEAKERS | SESSION #8:  Superforecasting

(No RSVP Required)

STAY A MINUTE - STAY A WHILE

 
 

2:00 PM - 2:30 PM (PT):

MEET THE SPEAKERS | SESSION #9:  Sustainability

(No RSVP Required)

STAY A MINUTE - STAY A WHILE

 
 
 
2:30 PM (PT):  All Good Things Must Come To An End ---- Until next year...STAY HEALTHY, STAY SAFE!  See you at DAAG 2022
 
 
In Special Recognition of Our DAAG Sponsors